Authors:
Historic Era: Era 4: Expansion and Reform (1801-1861)
Historic Theme:
Subject:
November/December 2005 | Volume 56, Issue 6
Authors:
Historic Era: Era 4: Expansion and Reform (1801-1861)
Historic Theme:
Subject:
November/December 2005 | Volume 56, Issue 6
Until hurricanes blew it off the front pages, the biggest economic story of the year was the rising price of oil. The media have been proclaiming gas prices to be the highest in history. In constant dollars, however, oil was more expensive as recently as 1980, when the price (in today’s money) reached almost $97 a barrel. Even Hurricane Katrina barely pushed the price above $70, and then, only briefly. As a percentage of average per capita income, oil probably reached its peak price in the 1930s.
The explanation for the recent rise in the price of oil is simple: supply and demand. India and China, each with close to one-sixth of the world’s population, are now growing very fast economically, and both have limited domestic oil resources. Thus, both have been buying more and more oil on the world market as their economies expand, soaking up more and more of the available supply. It is Economics 101 that, when demand rises more swiftly than supply, the price must increase.
But rising prices have very predictable economic effects. For one thing, consumers begin to conserve. Drivers take fewer trips. Householders turn down the thermostat. And wells that were only marginally profitable reopen. Idle oil rigs get rented as wildcatting increases. Exploration for new fields is funded.
But here, oil has a problem. If there were suddenly an increased demand for, say, chocolate bars, the candy factories of the world would simply begin cranking out more of them.
But oil isn’t chocolate bars. Oil has to be found and then it has to be refined. Both exploration and the building of refineries are technically challenging, hugely expensive, and very time-consuming. It can take a decade or more before a major new oil field can be fully exploited. A new refinery can cost five billion dollars and take five years to build. Despite constantly rising demand, there has not been a new refinery built in the United States since the 1970s.
So, while world demand for oil has tended to rise steadily, the supply needed to keep prices even has risen only in fits and starts, sometimes behind demand and sometimes ahead of it. The inevitable result is volatile prices, and this volatility has caused some experts to periodically declare an impending end of the age of oil ever since Edwin Drake sank his first wells in Pennsylvania in 1859.
The oil industry was born out of another effect of rising prices: the search for substitutes. Big cities in the mid-19th century were increasingly illuminated by coal gas, made by heating coal in the absence of air. The resulting gas was sent by pipe to customers. But people in the countryside weren’t near enough to coal gas plants to use gaslight. Instead, they mostly used whale oil for illumination.
As the demand for lighting increased and the number of whales in the world’s oceans declined, the price of whale oil rose steadily. By the mid-1850s, it