The Man Who Saved the Cadillac (November 1995 | Volume: 46, Issue: 7)

The Man Who Saved the Cadillac

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Authors: John Steele Gordon

Historic Era: Era 7: The Emergence of Modern America (1890-1930)

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November 1995 | Volume 46, Issue 7

Although this will come as a surprise to most academic economists, economics is one of the biological sciences. Free markets operate according to the rules that govern life itself, rules that are not always fair. And, just as in a biological ecosystem, the fit (and the lucky) survive the test of the market; the rest do not. Nowhere is this clearer, in both biology and economics, than when a new technology punctuates the equilibrium and changes what is possible. In both cases there is a flurry of creation as new creatures and products come into being and a rapid evolution as they compete. By the time the dust settles, most will have died out, leaving only the best-designed and most efficient models surviving.

 

The most famous example of this in the history of biology is known as the Cambrian explosion. It happened between 535 and 530 million years ago when the first multicellular organisms evolved. In only 5 million years virtually all basic multicellular body plans that still exist (along with many more that no longer do) came into being. As the paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould has noted, the whole history of life since has really been nothing but endless refinements on Cambrian themes.

In the economic ecosystem, the development of the microprocessor—really a tiny, dirt-cheap computer—in the early 1970s likewise made possible many new things under the sun. In no time, the hand-held calculator made the slide rule extinct, and the word processor sent the typewriter into irreversible decline.

The new technologies, of course, also competed among themselves, and many have already vanished. The word processor is now only a niche technology, supplanted by the personal computer, and Wang Laboratories, one of the great success stories of the 1970s, is now in bankruptcy. Visicalc, the first all-purpose spreadsheet, is long gone. WordPerfect and Ashton-Tate, software giants of the 1980s, are no longer independent companies.

But the computing power that twenty years ago would have cost a million dollars is now to be found on the desktops of half the teenagers in the country. What they will do with it over the next few years is anybody’s guess, but I would strongly advise everyone to step back smartly.

At the turn of this century, the automobile appeared and also underwent a rapid evolution, proliferation, and partial extinction. In 1903 alone, fifty-seven automobile companies came into existence and twenty-seven went bankrupt. Today, there are fewer than two dozen major car companies in the entire world. The rest, from the Stanley Steamer to the Henry T, have all gone extinct.

One brand of car that survives from 1903 is the Cadillac. In the last few years, Cadillac has seen its market share sharply eroded by sleeker, smaller luxury cars from Japan and Europe, and it is now rapidly evolving to meet the new competition. The old Cadillacs, beloved of elderly couples and the size of tennis courts, will soon disappear. But this is not the