Authors:
Historic Era: Era 10: Contemporary United States (1968 to the present)
Historic Theme:
Subject:
March 1988 | Volume 39, Issue 2
Authors:
Historic Era: Era 10: Contemporary United States (1968 to the present)
Historic Theme:
Subject:
March 1988 | Volume 39, Issue 2
Just imagine that you have a chance to buy for $25 a stock whose potential earnings seem to you to justify a price of $30. Should you buy? It appears irrational not to. But wait. Suppose you also believe that the market is full of morons who will not recognize the value of your stock when you offer it for sale. “It is not sensible,” John Maynard Keynes writes, “to pay 25 for an investment of which you believe the prospective yield to justify a value of 30, if you also believe the market will value it at 20” when you decide to sell.
Keynes was not merely one of the most influential economists of the 20th century but also a fabulously successful investor. While breakfasting in bed, he devoted half an hour each morning to the stock market—earning a fortune for himself and increasing by 1000 percent the market value of the endowment of his college, whose investment portfolio he managed.
Keynes is associated with an approach to investing that emphasizes psychological factors—an approach memorably expressed in his statement that “nothing is more suicidal than a rational investment policy in an irrational world.” The trouble with Keynes, I thought, as I counted my losses last October 19, is that he never explains how an average member of the crowd can follow his advice, which is to “guess better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.” If you try to guess what I will do, and I try to guess what you’ve guessed, and you try to guess what I’ve guessed, and so on, it’s obvious we’re destined to exhaust one another without gaining any edge. Keynes may get rich picking stocks while he sips tea in bed, but you and I probably will have to keep on working.
One reason it’s so hard to outguess the crowd is that the crowd goes crazy now and then. When that happens, investors reach for Mylanta, and business journalists reach for Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
Mackay, a British journalist and poet, published the book that keeps his name alive in 1841, at the age of 27. For readers interested in financial panics, only the first hundred pages of the big book matter. Here Mackay offers detailed accounts of three of history’s most glorious speculative bubbles. The last 600 pages furnish a miscellaneous collection of chapters in “the great and awful book of human folly": “The Alchymists,” “Modern Prophecies,” “Fortune-Telling,” “The Magnetisers,” “The Witch Mania,” “Haunted Houses,” “Relics,” and so on.
Unquestionably, the most memorable chapter in Extraordinary Popular Delusions is Mackay’s account of the tulip mania that hit Holland in the 1630s.
At the height of the madness, Mackay reports, a single root of the rare species viceroy was traded for two loads of wheat, four loads of rye, four fat oxen, eight fat swine, twelve fat sheep, two hogsheads