The Presidential Follies (September/October 1987 | Volume: 38, Issue: 6)

The Presidential Follies

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Authors: Irwin F. Fredman

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September/October 1987 | Volume 38, Issue 6

WHEN THE IRAN-CONTRA STORY BROKE LAST NOVEMBER, A NUMBER OF public figures as well as news commentators put the revelations in a historical context. Walter Mondale said in a New York Times interview: “It was all so knowable. Did they really think they could get away with it—violate the law and nobody would care?...They were so full of hubris....”

Shades of Thucydides! Was Mondale really aware of the range of judgments he had brought reverberating back down through the ages? As witness to another democracy being shaken by adventurers two thousand years ago, Thucydides wrote his History of the Peloponnesian War with the idea that “in the course of human things,” events would repeat themselves, that “the future...must resemble if not exactly reflect [the past].” Implicit was the hope that if people could recognize and understand the mistakes of the past, they would not repeat them.

But he also wrote that “an exact knowledge of the past [could be] an aid to the interpretation of the future.” So a crucial question arises: Can a knowledge of history actually give you the power to predict? The question struck me in a rather startling way. I had been working, by coincidence, on a book dealing with political scandals in American history. When Iran-contra broke, I was comparing some similarities between Teapot Dome and Watergate. I recalled Secretary of the Interior Albert B. Fall’s physical breakdown in the face of the rising pressures of the Teapot Dome investigations, not to mention President Warren G. Harding’s fatal illness in anticipation of the scandal’s breaking. I also remembered Richard Nixon’s attack of phlebitis under the pressure of facing an impeachment trial. With these thoughts in mind I casually said to my wife, “If the pattern holds, before this thing is over I’d say at least one of the principals is going to become seriously ill.” A few weeks later, to my honest astonishment, William Casey collapsed with a brain tumor. Just days after, Ronald Reagan went into the hospital with a swollen prostate and polyps on his colon. And soon after that Robert C. McFarlane attempted suicide.

Rather disconcerted, I turned to the history of the Crédit Mobilier scandal in the Grant administration. I could then look at the records side-by-side of four major scandals in American history (the fourth still unwinding on the front pages of the newspapers). With the facts spread out on my worktable, I could see not only a provocative pattern but at least a dozen striking similarities, the first being a combination of secret doings saturated with what Mondale recognized as hubris—that wonderful Greek word combining pride and arrogance.

Crédit Mobilier, the first scandal on my charts, got its name from a defunct Pennsylvania firm that was resuscitated expressly to handle the government contracts for the building of the Union Pacific Railroad. In 1872, during the administration of Ulysses S. Grant, not