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February 1976 | Volume 27, Issue 2
Brave New (crowded) World
Text Complexity Grade Level
9
In 1776 the Lottery Magazine of London looked toward the troublesome American colonies and—drawing on American writers including the celebrated Dr. Franklin—got off this remarkable census forecast. The tabulated figures in the second column run surprisingly close to actual U.S. census figures; for example, in 1790 the real number was 3,929,000; in 1820, 9,638,000; in 1840, 17,069,000; in 1870, 39,818,000; in 1890, 62,948,000. This accuracy fails after 1890, when the figures projected by the Lottery pundits are too large; but they do hedge their bet by suggesting, in their last paragraph, that “vast luxury and debauchery” in the twentieth century might cut back considerably on population increase. They knew nothing, of course, about the Pill or other recent sophistications of contraceptive science; but quite possibly they would have included them under “debauchery” if they had known. Merritt Ierley, Jr., who sent us this prescient snippet, has prepared a book on the year 1776 that will soon be forthcoming from A S. Barnes & Co., Inc.
On the Comparative P OPULATION of A MERICA , with G REAT B RITAIN
(Extracted from different Writirs.)
∗ This was written several years ago, by Dr. Franklin of America.
Land being plenty in America and fo cheap as that a labouring man, who understands husbandry, can in a short time fave money enough to purchace a piece of new land sufficient for a plantation, whereon he may fubfift a family. Such men are not afraid to marry; for if they even look far enough forward, to confider how their children, when grown up, are to be provided for, they fee that more land is to be had at rate equally eafy, all their circumstances considered.
Hence marriages in America are more general, and more generally early than in Europe. And if it is reckoned there, that there is but one marriage per annum among an hundred persons, perhaps we may here reckon two; and if in Europe they have but four births to a marriage (many of their marriages being late) we may here reckon eight; of which, if one half grow up, and our marriages are made, reckoning one with another, at twenty years of age, our people must at least be doubled every twenty years.
There are fuppofed to be now upwards of 1,000,000 English souls in North America, though it is thought scarcely eighty thousand have been brought over fea, and yet perhaps there is not one the fewer in Britain; but rather many more, on account of the