Story

Homer Lea and the Decline of the West

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Authors: Thomas Fleming

Historic Era: Era 8: The Great Depression and World War II (1929-1945)

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May/June 1988 | Volume 39, Issue 4

In October 1941, Clare Boothe Luce, the playwright, journalist, politician, and wife of the magazine tycoon Henry Luce, had dinner with half a dozen army officers in their quarters on top of an ancient Spanish fort beside the harbor of Manila. The main topic of conversation was the threat of war with Japan. Everyone assumed that, if hostilities began, the Philippines would be target No. 1 of the Japanese war machine.

Colonel Charles A. Willoughby, who would go on to glory of sorts as one of Douglas MacArthur’s most devoted staff officers, drew a map of Luzon on the tablecloth and traced arrows at Lingayen Gulf and Polillo Bight pointing toward Manila. “The main attacks will probably come here,” he said.

“You’re not giving away military secrets?” Mrs. Luce asked.

Willoughby laughed. “No. Just quoting military gospel—according to Homer Lea.”

Mrs. Luce was not the sort of woman who liked to admit any gaps in her knowledge. But she was forced to ask, “Who is Homer Lea?”

Willoughby said he was a self-appointed “general” who had written a book in 1909 predicting a war between America and Japan—a war that America could lose because of chronic unpreparedness. Lea had described with meticulous detail exactly how the Japanese would capture the Philippines and, if they were sufficiently audacious, Hawaii and the entire West Coast of the United States.

“I read him at West Point,” one of the officers said. “Damned convincing, militarily.”

Willoughby advised, “Next month, when you get home, brush up on the general.”

Back in New York, Mrs. Luce did not give a thought to Homer Lea until the bombs fell on Pearl Harbor and newspapers began printing maps of the Japanese assault on the Philippines. Then, she saw the “sinister little arrows” on the maps showing the Japanese landing in Lingayen Gulf. The invaders drove from there and Polillo Bight across Luzon in a pincer movement toward Manila. Mrs. Luce went to the public library and found The Valor of Ignorance by Homer Lea. It had been taken out three times since its publication in 1909.

By the time she finished the book, the Japanese had occupied Manila. In his book, Homer Lea had predicted that they would capture the Philippine capital in three weeks. It took them 26 days. Lea had declared that it was pointless to try to defend the islands with 21,000 white and native troops, the garrison in 1909, or even with three times that number. MacArthur’s 55,000 men were soon smashed by 200,000 Japanese invaders.

With a ferocity that chilled Mrs. Luce’s blood, Lea insisted that unless the Philippines assembled a great mobile army, only a substantial fleet, based just outside Manila, could save the country, and the flaccid, pacifist democracy called the United States of America would never build one. In 1941 the U.S. Asiatic Fleet had only 1 heavy cruiser; 2 light cruisers, one